← Grand Library League S2 Finals
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Grand Library League S2 Finals
decks
12
(10.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
64
26-30-8
overall winrate
46.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.8%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
48.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1306
· median 1231
· range 1161–1533
(12 pilots with an ELO rating)
1025
Q1 1184
Q3 1358
1694
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 26.3% | 20 | 7-13-0 | 35.0% | 37.5% | 48.6% | -0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 19.5% | 8 | 4-2-2 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 50.9% | +0.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.0% | -0.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 55.3% | +3.4 |
| Wind Allies | 4.2% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 48.5% | -0.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Lorraine | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 47.8% | -1.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 48.0% | -1.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.5 |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.0 |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
